Our expert, Ukrainian political scientist and historian Yevgeny Magda told Meta.ua why Lukashenko has recently become more active and started making various strange statements.
"The impetus for Lukashenka was the offensive operation of the Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region for a number of reasons. First of all, he was criticized by Z-warriors, who say that Lukashenka, by withdrawing his troops, created a situation in which Ukrainian forces were able to concentrate and strike in the Kursk region, " Yevhen notes.
"One way or another, his policy in recent years was based on loyalty to Russia. For loyalty, Russia pays compensation in money, fuel prices, political support, etc. Therefore, Lukashenka is actually a hostage of relations with Russia. And, you know, he is trying to show himself as a greater patriot of Russia than the citizens of Russia themselves, it is very funny. Therefore, when Lukashenko says that he and Putin will use or not use nuclear weapons, it is quite funny, because I doubt that Putin will dare to touch the nuclear suitcase.
"Secondly, " the expert notes, " when Lukashenka says that 20 brigades and battalion-tactical groups will be sent to Ukraine, this is a lie, because they simply do not exist today. There is no such number of Belarusian army, there are not many combat units in it. If Lukashenko says that they will support Russia in every possible way, then it is true, but to a certain extent. I think that Lukashenka will not go for the direct intervention of Belarusian troops in the Russian-Ukrainian war, because it could have serious political consequences for him. Political protests after the 2020 presidential elections have become the biggest political crisis in Belarus. And mass protests brought about a million people to the streets. Not everyone left Belarus, many really stayed, so it is unlikely that Lukashenka will dare to hand out weapons to his political opponents."
Yevhen also believes that Lukashenka is checking the Kremlin's influence with his maneuvers. And in every way demonstrates his own loyalty and readiness to support Russia in any way, except for direct intervention in military actions. "It should also be understood that he is preparing for the presidential elections, which, according to some data, should take place on February 25. And Lukashenka wants to "reload" on them. That is, to win the elections, so that this victory does not cause mass protests. And then act accordingly. That is, he wants to kill everyone. But his physical condition works against Lukashenka, the noticeable fatigue of Belarusian society. And one more fact that many forget. Lukashenko and Putin are not friends. They are companions. They sit in the same dictatorial compartment of the global train, but each of them has its own final station.
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