"Lukashenko himself created tension on the border, he relieved tension himself," Ukrainian channels report. But the question remains, why was it necessary to raise this tension, threaten saboteurs with retribution, drive soldiers and equipment here and there, and then return them?
"The situation surrounding the maneuvers of the Belarusian army near the Belarusian-Ukrainian border is actually tragicomic," our expert, director of the Ukrainian Institute of World Policy Yevgeny Magda, notes in an express comment for "Solidarity". - It is tragic that these maneuvers are full of imitation, PR and blood games.
In March-October 2022, hundreds of missiles flew from the territory of Belarus over the territory of Ukraine, and Ukraine did not forget about it.
Therefore, when Lukashenka starts talking about his peacefulness, it looks, on the one hand, quite funny, and on the other hand, it is laughter with tears in his eyes, because his "peacefulness" cost many human lives.
But if we return to the real situation, Lukashenka is afraid to involve his army in the war against Ukraine. He is afraid that Moscow will force him to do this (and it should be noted that after February 24, 2022, the leash on which the Kremlin keeps Lukashenka is getting shorter and shorter, so he is forced to act in such a way as to loosen up a little).
This, the political scientist believes, is the reason for the Belarusian regime's imitation of "danger" on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border, in order to repel it, it was necessary to pull up "Polanese" and "Iskander".
But anyone who has a sober memory, who knows the disposition of forces of the Belarusian and Ukrainian armies and knows the level of combat readiness of the Belarusian army, understands that for Belarus, participation in aggression against Ukraine is an adventure. And in Ukraine, there is no need, interest, need to increase the front by a thousand kilometers in confrontation with Russia, because Belarus is subordinate to Russia today.
- Therefore, when Lukashenka comes and says that they, as they say, "made an agreement", "after our certain work, the Ukrainians withdrew their troops" - this is PR for the domestic consumer.
This is reminiscent of the lines of the official anthem of Belarus: "We, Belarusians, are peaceful people." This is true, and in Ukraine they know that Belarusians - ordinary Belarusians - do not want to fight, because there have always been normal good-neighborly relations between Ukrainians and Belarusians. Accordingly, we will continue to monitor this.
But Belarus must clearly understand that such provocations do not improve relations between our countries. And the fact that diplomatic relations have been preserved today is Ukraine's good will, and this should also be understood. Therefore, Lukashenka will continue to be limited in his actions, and, in my opinion, the situation will be more or less stable.
There will be no military actions to maintain Lukashenka's power on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border, that is clear to me. And what will be the consequences or other steps - life will show.
Changes in Belarus now depend heavily on the general situation in the world, and above all on the development of the Ukrainian-Russian war. Therefore, I would like the citizens of Belarus to realize that only the defeat of Russia can cause a real change of power in Belarus - one that will not play along with the Kremlin, but protect the interests of your wonderful and interesting country.
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